How Much Should You Really Offer on a Property in Sydney?
It’s the question every buyer wrestles with in the Sydney property market: how much should I offer?
Whether you’re looking at a private treaty sale, an off-market deal, or an Expression of Interest, the lack of clear pricing guidance can make it feel like you're flying blind. And after weeks (or months) of scrolling listings, going to inspections, and watching homes sell well above the guide, it's no wonder most buyers are left confused.
In a market where underquoting is rampant and auction reserves are never disclosed, making the right offer isn’t just about throwing in a number that "feels fair." It’s about understanding the market, reading the signals, and knowing when to push and when to walk.
First Things First: Don’t Rely on the Guide
As we've covered in recent blog posts, price guides in Sydney are often little more than marketing tools. They exist to generate interest, not to give you a clear sense of value. The Sydney Morning Herald’s recent Bidding Blind investigation showed that in some suburbs, over 80% of homes sold for more than 10% above their quoted guide.
So if you’re basing your offer purely on the guide, you’re likely underestimating what it will actually take.
Do Your Own Research
The best way to get a sense of a property's real value is to look at recent comparable sales.
Same suburb, same property type: Don’t compare a two-bed unit to a three-bed terrace. Keep it apples-to-apples.
Same condition: A renovated home will attract a very different price than a fixer-upper.
Timing matters: Use sales within the last three months wherever possible.
Look at what similar properties are selling for, not what they were listed at. Tools like Domain, realestate.com.au, and CoreLogic are useful, but a good buyer’s agent will often have access to off-market data and post-auction sales that aren’t widely publicised.
Understand What Passed In
Not all sales are success stories. Properties that have passed in or been withdrawn from market often tell you just as much as the ones that sold.
Was the guide unrealistic?
Did the vendor refuse reasonable offers?
Was there low buyer interest, and why?
These are clues to vendor expectations and market appetite. Understanding them helps you tailor your offer with more confidence.
The Psychology of the Offer
It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking your offer needs to be "aggressive" to get attention. But sometimes, the best offer isn’t the highest, it’s the cleanest.
Shorter cooling off periods
Unconditional terms
Flexibility with settlement
These can all make your offer more attractive, especially in a competitive environment.
What About Expressions of Interest?
As we’ve said in a previous blog post, Expressions of Interest campaigns can feel like a black box. There’s no guide, no public competition, and often no feedback. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t make an offer, it just means you need to make a well-informed one.
Anchor your offer in data, not guesswork. Use comparables, ask the agent directly what offers have been received, and be prepared for radio silence. This is where having expert representation really helps.
When to Stretch, and When to Walk Away
Sometimes you find a place that’s just right. Great location, ticks all your boxes, and you can see yourself living there for years. That might be worth stretching your budget slightly, but only if it’s sustainable.
But don’t let emotion push you into a position you’ll regret. Sydney’s market moves quickly, but there’s always another home coming to market. Paying too much for the wrong one can set you back years.
Final Thought
There’s no perfect formula for what to offer in Sydney’s property market. But there is a smarter way to go about it.
Doing your homework, reading the signals, and working with someone who knows the market inside out can be the difference between a smart buy and a painful mistake. At The Acquiry, we help buyers navigate this process every day, with insight, strategy, and clear advice.
“If you’re tired of guessing, let’s talk.”